The political changes that have taken place in South Africa over the past year have been nothing short of colossal. The primary evidence of that change has come from the shift in political power on a national government level and a concerted effort on behalf of those now in power to change and transform the manner in which South Africa is governed. The embodiment of that change came with the election of the charismatic Jacob Zuma as the state President earlier in 2009. (more…)

“I didn’t vote for JFK…”

“…and I don’t intend to make that mistake again.”

Those were the words of my 66 year old Dad, a registered Republican, a few weeks ago. And over the course of our political conversations since he made that comment, it has dawned on me that I have never in my life seen him this excited about a candidate, for any office. He has donated to the Obama campaign on line, his comment to me being, “Do you realize that when you donate, they start sending you a newsletter and campaign updates?”. He has stopped by the local Obama campaign HQ, inquiring about an “Obamacan” bumper sticker. Apparently, they had no idea what he was talking about, so he explained…”You know, an ‘Obamacan’ is a Republican for Obama; you guys need to get some of those bumper stickers”.

Leading up to the March 4th primaries (my parents live in Texas), I now receive almost daily updates, via phone and e-mail, from my Dad, relating to some recent Houston Chronicle article or yesterday’s Zogby poll. I have been saying for weeks now that Obama is not a campaign…he’s a movement, fueled by various factors that touch many people, including a former Republican, now independent, such as myself, but all of which have created almost a perfect storm for dramatic change. The enthusiasm you find in Obama’s run for the presidency is contagious, and is manifesting itself in unprecedented voter turnout during this primary season, across the entire country. A recent e-mail from my Dad, in which he synopsizes some early-voting analysis from a Chronicle reporter named Rick Casey, speaks directly to the effect that the Obama phenomenon is having on voting in Texas:

Forget the polls, the real indicator of just how the Texas primary will turn out is the voting totals in the first 3 days of early voting in the state. In Texas, you do not register to vote by party so when you arrive @ the voting place, you declare which primary you want to vote in.

Early (3 days having been counted) voting stats released by the Texas Sec’y of State’s office seem to indicate that Obama is trending very much like he did in Wisconsin; i.e., demonstrating a pattern that far exceeds the polling data on likely voters in the Democratic primary.

Turnout is up dramatically across the state compared to the first three days of the 2004 election, especially for Democrats, but what tells the real story is where turnout is up most dramatically. Among the state’s 15 largest counties, the ones where Hillary Clinton is expected to fare the best with the help of older Latino voters the increase is as follows: El Paso County (2.7 times the % of registered voting in the Democratic primary vs 2004); Hildago County (1.7 times the turnout in 2004); Nueces County (3.1 times 2004)…..so in Clinton country, turnout is up anywhere from 50% to 200%.

But in the counties seen as Obama country, the increases range from 400% all the way up to 870% vs 2004. Harris County ( 8.3 times 2004); Dallas County (9.7 times 2004); Tarrant County (7.6 times 2004); & Travis County (5 times 2004).

Even more telling is the increase in turnout in traditionally Republican counties of voters in the Democratic primary…..Collin County ,Plano> (nearly 12 times the 2004 turnout); Williamson County (7 times the 2004 turnout);& Fort Bend County (15 times the 2004 turnout). In all these counties a significant number of voters have chosen the Democratic primary over the Republican primary. Pundits say this is clearly the Obama factor at work, although there is the question whether they will stay with him in the general election.

This is exactly the pattern we saw in Wisconsin where the polls showed Obama with a 5 point lead, give or take a point or two but the result showed a 17 point win. I think it’s safe to say that Obama will win Texas. Assuming he rolls up the popular vote & then his superior ground organization dominates the caucuses, it seems a foregone conclusion he will win this state. I think he’ll probably lose Ohio but it’ll be close. Regardless, the result will probably be that he will clinch the nomination after 3/04/08.

What has caused a lifelong Republican to become such an impassioned, informed believer in the Obama movement? The easiest word is probably disenchantment, not just as relates to the Bush administration, but with the Republican party as a whole. Snippets from recent e-mails from my Dad put it best:

The Republican party I grew up with, the one of Ev Dirkson, Hugh Scott, Jacob Javits et al……a party that was strong on national D, strong on conservation, totally secular, committed to states rights, & moderate on social issues, within the context of a strong economy, balanced budget, & the reduction in deficit spending…is gone.

In reality, Reagan was pretty much in line with these core beliefs, although he did raise taxes & cut & ran in Lebanon. But somewhere along the way, the party moved dramatically to the right & in doing so, it left many of us behind. Now, not only has the far right taken over the party but its fundamental principles have been destroyed. With W we have all the worst…..a war we should have never fought, a huge deficit, a weakening dollar, a diminished role in the world, and a trade imbalance that is out of control.

This country needs a dramatic change & the only candidate that represents such a change is Obama. Maybe after 8 years, the Republican party will finally move back towards the center & return to its roots.

Most Republicans would likely not agree with this opinion, but I think Obama is very much like Reagan. They are both visionary, big picture people. Reagan had a vision of what this country needed to be but he was continually criticized for his lack of focus, his lack of detail. Frankly, that’s what the leader should be, a visionary, not a policy wonk. Reagan had an instinct about the world order & about the American people…an intuition, if you will. I believe Obama has the same thing. He will bring people together & stop the partisan politics that are dragging this country down.

I am still dumbfounded as to what happened to my Governor. I sent him to Washington & he let a higher power & his gut feeling take over any rational thinking he might have had when he was in Austin. As good a Governor as we’ve had in recent Texas history is the worst President in my lifetime, including Jimmy Carter. It’s very sad. I was on the ground in the late 60’s for his dad who I think was the type of Republican I had grown up with. I cannot imagine what he is thinking now.

I left out small business, another cornerstone of the Republican party that has gone by the board. Now, it’s all about protecting big business at the expense of the citizenry.

I’ll tell you why John McCain will be the nominee of the party…….W. Had Bush been the president I thought he’d be, the party would have no doubt, coalesced behind a more conventionally conservative candidate. In a way, Bush has done us a favor. Maybe, just maybe, the current situation will force the party to move back closer to the center where most of the country is. As long as the far right wing holds sway, it will be near impossible for this country to move forward because compromise simply is not in the lexicon of the far right.

There’s a reason why George Bush’s favorable rating is at an all-time low within the party he represents. I am one of those who thinks he has been a disaster & the sooner we make dramatic change, the better.

I cannot say it any better, and I certainly don’t have the decades of perspective that my Dad brings to the above comments. I cannot agree more regarding the path that the Republican party has taken, particularly since the George H.W. Bush administration. And I emphatically agree that W has been a complete disaster, damaging this country in more ways than I care to enumerate. Frankly, some of my own support for Obama is driven by a position that may seem overly simplistic: I think that for this country to elect a president named Barack Hussein Obama would almost immediately change our global image, and be a terrific first step in repairing the damage to that image that W has done. Or as my Dad so eloquently put it in an e-mail of a few weeks ago:

The win by Obama in Iowa said it all…. where else but America could a black man with a Muslim father win an election in a state with 97% of the population being white? This is fundamentally what this country is all about & it sends a clear message to the rest of the world that for all the problems created by the Bush administration, we are still the beacon of hope for the entire world.