This weekend, like many of the over 3.5 million registered voters in Washington state, I received my mail-in ballot.  If you don’t live here, then you might be surprised on Election Day if it is reported that Obama has won Washington state by double-digits, Congressional challenger Darcy Burner beats incumbent Dave Reichert (R), but nonetheless, Governor Gregoire, also a Democrat, loses or is in a statistical tie with her opponent, Dino Rossi.   (You may also feel a sense of déjà vu.)  Obama’s candidacy will likely have coattails for Democrats down the ticket, but not here in Washington, at least at the governor’s level.  Here is why Gregoire might lose.

 

In Washington, the number of registered voters here is already at an all-time high (3,515,393 as of October 7).  Obama has dominated here in Washington throughout 2008, easily defeating Hillary Clinton in the primary.  In June, Obama was crushing McCain in the polls by 17%, until McCain’s post-convention Palin bump, when McCain closed the gap to 4% due to heavy, steady movement amongst voters with no college education from Obama to McCain.  With the economic upheaval now foremost, and the third debate behind us, Obama’s spread has now increased to around 9%, a healthy margin which likely means the state’s electoral votes are in his column come November 4th.

 

Governor Christine Gregoire backed Obama quite early and vocally over presumptive front-runner Hillary Clinton.  Logically, she should be the beneficiary of Obama’s popularity in the Evergreen State on Election Day.  However, she is in a dead heat with her Republican challenger, Dino Rossi, a man who no longer holds any elective office and, among other things, whose television commercials are of terrible quality, perhaps one step above bad infomercials for weight-loss miracle formulas.

 

How is this possible, in this bluest of blue states?  How did Gov. Gregoire, elected in a squeaker in 2004 (also against Rossi), fail to create a coalition broad enough to make her the clear favorite?  How did she reach the point where several of the state’s major newspapers, the Yakima Herald, the Walla Walla Union Bulletin, the Tri-City Herald, and even the very liberal Seattle Times have endorsed her Republican opponent, Dino Rossi?

 

Gregoire is on shaky ground for the same reasons Barack Obama is doing so well: economic upheaval and uncertainty.  Washington has no state income tax, so state tax revenues are more susceptible to recessionary business cycles.  Government spending under Gregoire has increased by a third since her election, without a comparable increase in state revenues.  The very first budget proposed by Gregoire in 2005 was a 12% increase over the previous administration’s budget – a fellow Democrat, Gary Locke.  The 2008 budget was not a one-time variance for her, but a habit born of being “deferential” to her financial base: the plaintiffs’ bar and the unions.  It’s been pretty clear from early in the Gregoire administration that the state treasury was going to take a hit.

 

But with the credit crisis and the economy slowing, what a big hit it has turned out to be.  Currently, the projected state deficit for 2009 will be $4-5 billion, which is a lot for a state with fewer than seven million citizens.  So it doesn’t look good when you’re a governor who has increased spending well over the rate of inflation for a few years running, and came into office with a budget surplus.  Just ask George W. Bush – or better yet, John McCain, who has to live with what Bush has done when he campaigns under the Republican banner.  Which brings up another problem for Gregoire - Democrats have held the governor’s office for 24 years.  If there are economic problems and looming deficits, and the same party has been at the reins for years – well, maybe it’s time for a change.  In Washington, that may be a disadvantage for Gregoire.

 

Finally, there is a lot of bitterness left over from the last election in 2004.  Rossi lost by 133 votes.  Allegations of voter fraud in King County and elsewhere involving ACORN (still a familiar name in 2008) found traction here, and not just by the fringe right – there were some investigations based on evidence that non-existent or ineligible votes were counted in that gubernatorial election.  The “Re-Defeat Bush” bumper sticker from the 2004 presidential campaign has an analog here: “Re-Elect Rossi”.  Former United States Attorney John McKay still wanders the state making speeches and alleging that his failure to investigate such fraud “may” have been a reason he was dismissed by former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales; however, the recent report issued by DOJ does not back up that allegation by McKay, stating that the likely reason was disagreement over a criminal database project.Yes, the 2004 election left a bitter taste here, which is still working its way through our political zeitgeist.  

 

The most recent polls show Rossi is in a statistical dead heat with Gregoire.  What should be a cakewalk for Gregoire, four years after her win by less than 150 votes, could be another photo finish on November 4th.

Tags: Gregoire, Obama, swing state, Washington state

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